Market update on majors

EURUSD

The Euro stabilizes around 1.38 handle, where the price closed for the week, after posting fresh high at 1.3831, Fibonacci resistance. Overall tone remains positive, however, descending indicators on 4-hour chart suggest further consolidation that was signaled by Friday’s Doji. Also overbought daily studies see risk of a pause in near-term rally. Initial support lies at 1.377, consolidation floor /Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3664/1.3831 upleg, ahead of strong 1.37 zone, previous highs / 38.2% retracement and 1.3650 higher low / 50%, where stronger dips should find a footstep. On the upside, break above 1.3831 to focus 1.3900 initially.

Res: 1.3817; 1.3837; 1.3857; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3770; 1.3750; 1.3700; 1.3650





GBPUSD

Cable trades in prolonged consolidative phase, with price action being established within 1.6254/1.6114 range, following repeated failure at key 1.6254/59 barrier. Hourly technicals are weak, while 4-hour chart indicators are losing traction, as the price moves within hourly triangular consolidation. Increased downside risk would be seen on a break below 1.6114/00 support zone, as this would also signal double-top formation on 4-hour chart and keep the upside targets on hold. Conversely, sustained break above 1.6200 handle, would shift near-term focus towards key barriers and breakpoints at 1.6254/59, above which to signal resumption of larger uptrend and focus short-term targets at 1.6300/80.

Res: 1.6221; 1.6245; 1.6254; 1.6259
Sup: 1.6168; 1.6148; 1.6114; 1.6100




USDJPY

The pair regains strength and averts immediate downside risk, as bounce off 97.00 support zone that was cracked last Friday, retraces over 50% of 98.47/96.93 downleg, on a weekly gap-higher opening. Hourly studies turned positive, however, weak tone prevails on 4-hour chart, as the price remains in near-term downtrend from 98.99 and current rally being capped by 55DMA at 97.74. Regain of 98.00 and more significant 98.47 lower top, is required to shift focus higher, otherwise, fresh lower top and extension of larger downtrend, would be likely near-term scenario. Initial support lies at 97.43, session low / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, while, extension below 96.93 handle would open way for full retracement of 96.55/98.99 ascend.

Res: 97.74; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47
Sup: 97.43; 96.93; 96.55; 96.00





AUDUSD

Near-term price action remains under pressure, as extension from 0.9670, where the lower top was left, broke below initial 0.9600 support. Fresh extension lower retraced 38.2% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally on a dip to 0.9571 so far, with near-term indicators sliding into negative territory. Initial targets lay at 0.9526/18, previous peak / 50% retracement, along with psychological 0.9500 support, reinforced by daily 55DMA. Break here to neutralize near-term bulls and spark stronger correction of larger 0.9280/0.9755 rally, as the upside remains capped by descending 200DMA. Corrective attempts face initial resistance at 0.9622, with 0.9670 expected to cap.

Res: 0.9622; 0.9670; 0.9700; 0.9755
Sup: 0.9571; 0.9526; 0.9500; 0.9461

Technical Analysis for Majors

EURUSD

The Euro remains at the back foot, as break below initial 1.3540 support, triggered fresh acceleration that fully retraced 1.3500/1.3645 upleg. Break below 1.3500 support, focuses strong support zone at 1.3460/40, higher platform / previous peak of 20/08 and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3103/1.3645 rally. Negative near-term technicals favor the scenario, with consolidative action on oversold hourly studies, expected to precede fresh weakness. Any stronger rally should stay capped under 1.3545/65, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% of 1.3645/1.3484 downleg, to keep freshly established bears in play.

Res: 1.3525; 1.3545; 1.3565; 1.3583
Sup: 1.3484; 1.3460; 1.3440; 1.3400




GBPUSD

Cable came under increased pressure yesterday, with fresh bearish acceleration extending reversal from 1.6259 peak below 1.6000 handle and approaching the next support at 1.5900. The third wave that commenced from 1.6123 lower top, could travel to 1.5871/57, main bull trendline off 1.4812 and 100% Fibonacci expansion, with negative near-term studies supporting the notion. Bears may be interrupted by consolidative action, as hourly and 4-hour studies are oversold, with 1.6000, previous support, now offering solid resistance.

Res 1.5965; 1.6000; 1.6041; 1.6081
Sup: 1.5912; 1.5900; 1.5871; 1.5857




USDJPY

The pair extends near-term correction through initial barrier at 97.47 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 99.65/96.55 descend, approaching initial barriers at 98.00/10, psychological resistance / 50% retracement. Positively aligned near-term studies support further advance, however, overbought hourlies may delay rally. Clear break above 98.00 resistance zone is required to confirm freshly established uptrend and near-term base at 96.55, for stronger recovery towards next significant barrier at 99.00. Corrective dips should be contained above higher low at 97.11, to maintain bulls.

Res: 97.81; 98.00; 98.10; 98.28
Sup: 97.45; 97.11; 96.81; 96.55





AUDUSD

The pair came under pressure, as recovery attempt off 0.9280 failed to sustain break above 0.9455 barrier, with extension higher stalling at 0.9483 and subsequent pullback probing levels below 0.9400 support. Hourly studies turned negative, while 4-hour indicators are heading south that keeps the downside at risk, as the pullback retraced nearly 50% of 0.9280/0.9483 rally. Further easing would signal prolonged consolidation under 0.9526 high, as the price holds within 0.9280/0.9500 range. However, positive daily studies keep the upside in focus, with price action required to hold above key near-term support at 0.9280.

Res: 0.9422; 0.9471; 0.9483; 0.9500
Sup: 0.9388; 0.9358; 0.9332; 0.9300

Market Update, look out for the Yens!

Analysis for October 3rd, 2013

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar rebounded from the H4 Super Trend again; earlier the price rebounded from the 4/8 level. Most likely, during the next several days the pair will start a new ascending movement. The target for the bulls is at the 8/8 level.

At the H1 chart, the Super Trends are still under pressure “bullish cross”. If the market is able to keep the price above the 5/8 level, the pair will continue growing up. In this case, the target will be at the 8/8 level.

NZD/JPY

The pair rebounded from the 3/8 level and is trying to start a new ascending movement. If the bulls are able to break the daily Super Trend, they will become more dominant. I’ll increase my long positions as soon they break it.

At the H1 chart, the market could leave an “oversold zone”; the Super Trends formed “bullish cross”. The closest target for the bulls is at the 2/8 level.

SILVER

Silver broke the H4 Super Trend, thus ruining all bearish plans and expectations. During a local correction I opened a buy order. Later the market is expected to move upwards and reach the daily Super Trend. If the market breaks it, the instrument will continue growing up.

At the H1 chart we can see, that the bulls’ first attempt to enter an “overbought zone” failed; the Super Trends formed “bullish cross” and right now are supporting the current correction. We can’t exclude a possibility that the price may break the -2/8 level during the next several days. In this case, the lines at the chart will be redrawn.