Wave patterns on longer term views

EUR/USD

Our mid-term expectations haven’t changed much – it looks like Euro is completing the second part of zigzag (E) of [B], a descending wave C of (E) of [B], which may take the form of an impulse.

We may assume that the price is forming a descending wave C of (E) in the form of an impulse with a predicted target at 1.2759 or lower.

We may assume that a descending wave C is taking the form of an impulse. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue falling down without breaking the critical level.

GBP/USD

Our mid-term expectations remain the same – it looks like Pound is finishing the second part of zigzag Y of (D), wave [c] of Y of (D), which may take the form of an impulse.

We may assume that the price is forming a descending wave [c] of Y of (D) in the form of an impulse with a predicted target below 1.50.

We may assume that Pound is forming a descending wave [c] of Y. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue falling down without breaking the critical level.

USD/CHF

We can’t exclude a possibility that Franc completed a possible descending correction [b] of C of (4) in the form of extended flat. This assumption has yet to be confirmed, but if it is correct, then later the price is expected to start a new ascending trend inside wave [c] of C of (4).

We can’t exclude a possibility that Franc started forming an ascending wave [c] of C. However, right now it’s not quite clear which form it will take, an impulse or diagonal triangle.

We can’t exclude a possibility that Franc is forming an ascending wave [c]. This assumption has yet to be confirmed, but we should note that the structure of this wave may be changed.

USD/JPY

After completing a possible ascending wedge (A) of [4], the price is expected to form a descending correction (B) of [4], the form of which isn’t quite clear yet.

We can’t exclude a possibility that a descending correction (B) started with wedge [a] of A of (B) and right now the price is forming an ascending correction [b] of A of (B). If this assumption is correct, then later the price may finish an ascending correction [b] of A of (B) and continue falling down to complete wave A of (B).

We may assume that the pair is forming an ascending zigzag [b] and completing its descending correction (b) of [b]. Later the price is expected to continue moving upwards.

Market Update

EUR/USD Current price: 1.3311

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The EUR/USD trades above 1.3300 finally, with a slow but steady advance in the US session, and having been pretty wild over the last few hours, coming and going in a 100 pips range on headlines. Again yen gains lead dollar losses, as further position unwinding is seen in JPY crosses. The EUR/USD however remains limited on speculation a rate cut is quite firm on ECB table, although maintains the bullish stance according to technical readings: the hourly chart shows price firming up above 20 SMA, as indicators head north in positive territory. In the 4 hours chart technical stance is just the same, with scope now for an advance towards 1.3360 in the short term.

Support levels: 1.3290 1.3245 1.3200

Resistance levels: 1.3325 1.3360 1.3400

EUR/JPY Current price: 127.68

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The EUR/JPY lost most of the ground recovered in the past to day, again nearing key dynamic support, its 100 DMA today around 126.30. As for the hourly chart, indicators head south in deep red after having barely corrected extreme oversold readings, while moving averages gain bearish slope well above current price. Bigger time frames show technical readings also favoring a downward continuation, with 127.10 as immediate support to break to confirm a test of the mentioned 100 DMA.

Support levels: 127.10 126.30 125.50

Resistance levels: 128.40 129.00 129.60

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5646

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The GBP/USD was also benefited by yen momentum, recovering up to 1.5652, so far the daily high. While technical readings lack a strong upward momentum, the dominant trend is bullish, and there’s little to do about it, but buy on dips. The hourly chart shows 20 SMA gaining a bullish slope and indicators in positive territory, which supports more gains despite the lack of strength. In the 4 hours chart the technical outlook is also bullish, supporting the shorter term view and a test of the weekly target of 1.5770.

Support levels: 1.5610 1.5550 1.5500

Resistance levels: 1.5650 1.5690 1.5730

USD/JPY Current price: 96.04

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Yen again advanced for most of the day after the BOJ disappointed: the USD/JPY reached an intraday low of 95.58, breaking below 100 DMA, and about to close the day below it, first time since mid October 2011. Despite trading around 50 pips higher, the technical picture continues to be strongly bearish, with indicators heading south in oversold territory, and moving averages gaining even more downward slope above current price. Having a hard time to hold above the 96.00 level so far, a break below mentioned low should lead to a test of 95.00 area while once below this last, 93.60, 38.2% retracement of these months bullish run, comes at sight.

Support levels: 95.45 95.10 94.70

Resistance levels: 96.20 96.50 96.90

AUD/USD: Current price: 0.9437

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Even AUD got benefited for dollar fall, as despite the slide in stocks and commodities, the pair managed to recover some ground, trading back above the 0.9400 mark. Short term bullish according to the hourly chart, the pair may extend its advance towards 0.9570/0.9500 area, where next hurdle of sellers awaits. Renewed selling pressure leading to a fall below 0.9380 support, will deny the chance of an upward correction and favor a retest of recent lows.

Support levels: 0.9410 0.9380 0.9320

AUD/USD Oversold?

Aud/Usd is certainly oversold on all indicators.

Our Swing Trading software is confirming a buy...

In this chart we can see a White star, major support and reversal indicator.

Along with divergence on the CCI and MACD.

The trigger of the WA Explosion confirms a BUY NOW.