Eur/Usd testing.....

EUR/USD

A final swing higher is still anticipated.

• EUR/USD needs to break under 1.3266 (07/08/2013 intraday low) to begin to weaken the current bullish structure that is in place. In the meantime we continue to expect a retest of the key high at 1.3417 (19/06/2013).
• A push under 1.3190 (02/08/2013 low) is required to negate the medium-term bullish bias that we have in place.
• If a retest, or break over, 1.3417 can be achieved, the region between this key high and the annual high is expected to offer a fair degree of resistance and is likely to offer a reasonable short entry opportunity.

Await fresh signal, with a bias to sell higher.

GBP/USD

Further swing higher anticipated.

• GBP/USD continues to look bullish in the midterm time frame. The minor set back that we have witnesses since the recent peak last Thursday is seen as a correction in a rising trend. • With this in mind focus turns to the multimonth falling channel that has contained trade for the last two years. A return to the resistance of this technical structure is now favoured, currently near 1.6150.
• Back under 1.5102 (02/08/2013 low) is required to dampen the current bullish bias that is in place.

Look to buy lower.

USD/JPY

Near-term structure remains bearish.

• USD/JPY continues to exhibit a short-term structure that would be consistent with further weakness in the coming days, with the 200 day moving average still in focus. However, we do note that should this level be tested, we would expect strong support between the average and the key low at 90.88 (25/02/2013 low).
• The near-term is dominated by the push under the 61.8% retrace of the 93.79 - 101.53 rise which opens up a return to the low at 93.79 (13/06/2013), followed by a retest of the region close to the 200 day moving average, currently at 93.50.
• A break over the recent high at 99.95 (02/08/2013 high) is required to turn the bias bullish again, in favour of a return to 101.53 (08/07/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Over 0.9390 is required to strengthen the outlook.

• USD/CHF continues with its minor recovery after finding initial support on long-term trend line support last week. This bounce is viewed as a correction in a mature mid-term falling trend. A push back over 0.9390 (02/08/2013 high) is required to negate the current bias.
• We also note that a full retrace to the annual low at 0.9022 (02/01/2013) is becoming more likely.
• Should the 0.9022 region be tested over coming weeks, then this is deemed to be a strong region of potential support, where long strategies can also be formulated.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The anticipated lower high may now be in place.

• USD/CAD appears to have posted a lower high at 1.0445 (07/08/2013). As mentioned in recent Daily Technical Reports, this is what we have been anticipating, for a swing back lower to test the area closer to the 200 day moving average and long term trend line support from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low). This process is now likely underway, with a return to the 1.0150 region expected.
• In the longer term, the key resistance at 1.0870 (02/11/2009 high, see also the long-term declining trendline from the October 2002 peak) is expected to cap the medium-term upside potential. However, as long as the support at 1.0137 (14/06/2013 low, see also the rising trendline from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) in a daily chart) holds, we would still favour a mild medium-term bullish bias.

Sell limit 3 at 1.0400, Objs: 1.0300/1.0200/1.0150, Stop: 1.0500.

AUD/USD

Initial resistance seen near 0.9200.

• AUD/USD has seen initial resistance close to 0.9200 as anticipated last week, reaching 0.9221 so far today. We now look for a phase of weakness to re-assert, with scope for a move back down to the 0.8848 region.
• We are still of the view that we are in the midst of a lengthy consolidation phase in the 0.8848 - 0.9319 range. A break under 0.8848 is the favoured resolution.
• If the current recovery phase were to gain traction and break out of the above mentioned range, strong resistance would be anticipated in the 0.9500 - 0.9600 zone, where short strategies would be strongly favoured.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Maintains foothold above 148.00.

• GBP/JPY is holding above the 148.00 region for now. The 148.00 level is now seen as key to further potential upside, thus if a break under this level can be achieved, a swift push towards the 200 day moving average, currently at 144.86, would be anticipated.
• While above 148.00 our bias remains bullish, with scope for a minimum return towards the 156.77 (13/05/2013) annual high.
• In the longer term, we favour a rise towards the strong resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) as long as the key support area between 146.46 (16/04/2013 low) and 145.88 (15/03/2013 high) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.

Look to buy again.

EUR/JPY

Eventual weakness seen last week near 129.34. More favoured to follow.

• EUR/JPY eventually met supply close to the old low at 129.34 (31/08/2013) which now appears to have reverted to resistance. Structure present since the recent high at 132.74 (24/07/2013) is suggestive of a further swing lower towards the June low at 124.97 (13/06/2013).
• In the longer term, we favour the formation of a higher low versus 118.73 for a further rise towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Near-term consolidation favoured to resolve lower.

• EUR/GBP is consolidating after the recent bout of sharp weakness. This narrow consolidation is favoured to resolve lower into what we see as an evolving correction to the downside. 0.8770 (01/08/2013 high) is likely the lower high that we had been anticipating, with scope for a mediumterm return to the 200 day moving average, currently at 0.8442 and then on towards 0.8398 (26/04/2013 low).
• Price action seen since the annual high at 0.8815 is deemed to be part and parcel of a larger corrective phase which may eventually retest under the 0.8398 (26/04/2013 low) region.

Look to sell.

EUR/CHF

Consolidates ahead of region of strong support.

• EUR/CHF remains in a region where support is anticipated. The ideal location for long strategy entry is deemed to be close to the 200 day moving average which currently rests at 1.2259.
• The recent price action off the 1.2466 high (09/07/2013) is deemed to be corrective in nature and we now look for a resumption of the larger rising trend which is shown in the daily chart by a bullish channel formation.
• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. We generally favour further longer term upside for EUR/CHF towards the psychological threshold at 1.30.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD

Break out of daily falling channel suggests scope for a basing formation.

• Gold has managed to break the resistance of the daily falling channel formation that we noted in last weeks reports. This now reveals a clear vulnerability of the bear trend that has been in place for a number of months. A break over 1348.65 (24/07/2013 high) would likely trigger a substantial extension higher, as weak shorts get squeezed out.
• If a retest of the recent low can be achieved then this is likely to be associated with a lack of downside momentum and may thus also equate to a reasonable long entry zone.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER

Break over 20.63 strengthens outlook.

• Silver has now broken over the key 20.63 high (23/07/2013). This is a clear indication of strength and an early sign of an evolving basing formation. This move also constitutes a break higher out of the old trading range that we highlighted last week. A continuation of this recent strength is now anticipated.
• A rise back towards the old floor and close to the 200 day moving average is now possible over coming sessions.