Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is traded at weekly PP
“It’s the U.S. economy that’s in the vanguard, and that explains why the dollar continues to advance. The Federal Reserve might exit its quantitative easing sooner than later, while the BoE is going to do more QE and the ECB is favored to do more.”
- Miller Tabak & Co. (based on CNBC)
- Pair’s Outlook
The common European currency recovers, as the price breached the monthly S1 level at 1.2875 and weekly pivot point at 1.2885 yesterday. Seems that Dollar’s appreciation takes a break and the pair undergoes a small correction. Considering its possible extent, it is likely to see an attempt to overcome an intersection point of the 55-day SMA and weekly R1 at 1.2974. Possible target for our long position. However, a trend of the market depends on the FOMC decision regarding the monetary easing programme. - Traders’ Sentiment
Euro-bears enlarged their share by another 2% to 54%. It seems that investors foresee a stronger Dollar again, as the U.S. economy improves. Pending orders market is gently bearish with 54% of sell orders.
GBP/USD gains above weekly PP
“There’s a bit of position squaring after the run we have seen and ahead of Bernanke this week, but the dollar remains a buy on dips. The Bank of England revised their growth outlook last week but it’s hardly the stuff of legends.”
- HSBC Holding Plc. (based on Reuters)
- Pair’s Outlook
GBP/USD strengthened yesterday, as the exchange rate increased from the monthly S1 at 1.5191 to the weekly pivot point at 1.5340. The pair was pushed higher amid better-than-expected home sales data, indicating that the domestic economy might be really recovering. In case bullish sentiments persist this week, it is likely to see the price around a 1.5322 level, where the 55-day, 100-day SMAs merge with the weekly R1 level. - Traders’ Sentiment
Bullish share in SWFX market contracted by 5% to 55%, meaning that currently there are a lot of speculators, who are ready to profit from very small corrections. Placed orders segment is neutral, since both sides have exactly the same amounts.
USD/JPY remains unchanged
“The yen has weakened in part because Amari tried to downplay his remarks. Amari’s comment hasn’t shown any clear change, but it’s milder in terms of slowing yen weakness.”
- Aozora Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
- Pair’s Outlook
USD/JPY pair is in the middle of a battle between bulls and bears, since the price has been trading flat past two weeks. The pair fluctuates between 103 and 102 levels around the weekly pivot point at 102.43. A bullish trend should succeed, as some bank analysts deliver bullish signals for the rest of a year. On the other hand, traders say that the pair is overbought now (hence our short position), as the major indicators deliver warning signals. Mostly due to that the pair is moving sideways in recent sessions. - Traders’ Sentiment
SWFX marketplace investors shift towards bullish sentiments, as the buy side increased by another 7%, compared with the data last morning, to a 73% share. Waiting orders market is also bullish with 67% of buy orders.
USD/CHF hovers near monthly R2
“Markets remain jittery about the potential for the tapering of asset purchases ahead of Chairman Bernanke's testimony to Congress.”
- Barclays Plc. (based on Reuters)
- Pair’s Outlook
USD/CHF has already dropped 100 pips from a Friday’s peak, when it reached a 0.9761 level. Currently the pair is traded at 0.9663, where the monthly R2 and weekly PP are located. Further movement directly depends on the sentiments regarding the U.S. Dollar. If investors continue to buy assets denominated in the U.S. currency, USD/CHF should proceed its up-move while facing the resistance at 0.9799, where the monthly R3, weekly R1 and Bollinger band coincide. - Traders’ Sentiment
Investors keep their strong bearish sentiments, as the sell side has 71% of all opened orders in the market. Pending orders segment is slightly bullish, since 58% of waiting orders are to buy the buck.
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