audusd Forecast

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian employment market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change continues to show sharp fluctuations. After two declines, the indicator surged in February, posting a gain of 47.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 15.3 thousand. The markets are expecting another gain in the March release, with an estimate standing at 7.3 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the estimate?

Sentiment and Levels
The RBA has not been shy about the fact that it wants to see the Aussie below the 0.90 level, and we can expect the RBA to continue to try and  “talk down” the currency. In the US, market sentiment remains positive about the economy and recent US employment numbers have been decent, although not as high as the markets had expected. The US dollar has room to move higher if upcoming US numbers don’t disappoint. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9526, 0.9442, 0.9368, 0.9283, 0.9180 and 0.9000.
5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 4.0K to 10.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 10.1K to 14.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 14.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line could be broken.
4. Below expectations: 1.0K to 3.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 1.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break below a second support level.

S & P 500, WAVE 5?

EURCAD wAVE 4!

Market Update 2nd April 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still forming ascending wave with target at level of 1.3820. Later, in our opinion, instrument may fall down to return to level of 1.3765 and then start new ascending wave towards level of 1.3990.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound continues forming descending structure, which may be considered as the fifth wave wit target at level of 1.6430. We think, today price may form the first descending structure of this wave with local target at level of 1.6560.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is still forming descending structure. We think, today price may continue moving towards level of 0.8760 and then return to level of 0.8830.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen continues forming ascending structure; which may be considered as the fifth wave of current correction with target at 103.90 or even 104.20. Later, in our opinion, instrument may consolidate for a while, form reversal pattern, and continue falling down to reach level of 100.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar is still forming descending impulse. We think, today price may complete this descending structure at level of 0.9200 and then return to level of 0.9250. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue forming the first descending wave with main at level of 0.8400.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble is consolidating near level of 35.34. We think, today price may return to level of 35.34 to test it from below and then continue falling down towards level of 33.81.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues forming consolidation channel near its minimums; market formed upside down double top pattern. We think, today price may leave this consolidation channel upwards and start forming the fifth ascending wave with target at level of 1435.

Brent Crude looks vulnerable on the weekly charts...

Both the major crude oil contracts are trading higher today despite the lack of any significant data from Asia or Europe, and the stronger dollar. Today’s gains therefore appear to be almost entirely driven by supply factors after Libya’s el-Feel oilfield was shut yesterday, resulting in a drop of 150 thousand barrels of crude output. Most of the country’s oil ports, including El Sharara, which has an output capacity of about 340,000 bpd, have been shut due to the on-going protests from the rebels. As well as Libya, there are concerns about future demand for Russian oil as their involvement in Ukraine has led to retaliatory response from the EU which along with Ukraine have agreed to reduce their energy dependence from the former Soviet Union. Meanwhile the rallying copper prices in response to the diminishing Chinese demand concerns, is also helping boost the sentiment.

Last week, Brent managed to hold above a long-term bullish trend line which came in just below the $105.50 mark. As a result, financial speculators may have abandoned some of their bearish positions in the London-based contract. However the upside has so far been fairly limited, in part due to the sheer number of resistance levels seen ahead which may have discouraged some of the bullish speculators from entering the market for now. The $107.50 level, for example, has already been tested unsuccessfully twice in as many days. Even if $107.50 is broken, more resistance is seen around the 50 and 200 day moving averages of approx. $108.00 and $108.50, respectively. Some traders may therefore be waiting on the side-lines until either some or all of these resistance levels are broken before joining the bulls, or the join bears if the key $105.40 support is taken out.

Yesterday saw WTI crude oil manage to hold its own above the 50-day moving average support of $99.30 after initially running into resistance at $100.25 – a level which was formerly support. The US oil contract is again pushing towards that high today, with a potential test of the 200-day average at $100.40 also looking increasingly likely. However, even if it breaks above the 200-day average, the upside could potentially be capped by the $100.70-$101.00 resistance range, which was previously support.  Meanwhile if WTI starts to head lower once again and potentially close the session below the 50-day moving average ($99.25), then we could well see another leg lower in the price of US oil over the coming days.

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

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EURCAD Momentum trade

Aus/Nzd perfect Swing set up

A ‘text book’ perfect swing trade occurred on the audnzd daily chart at the close of last weeks trading. A old support level acting as new resistance, lining up nicely with the mean value created the perfect hot spot for shorting. The rejection candle setup seen prices weaken quite aggressively into a critical monthly support level.
This is a good area for sellers to consider liquidating their short positions as the market is now testing monthly lows. These prices have been respected as the market floor for the last decade. Right now we’re watching for strong bullish price action signals to manifest themselves here to confirm buying pressure and confirmation of a potential long setup.
Be cautious of bearish traps if the market does dive below the level, it could very well be classic price trap