EUR/USD heads higher

The dollar weakened broadly during the New York session and fell versus most competitors after the global central banks remained on hold at today's monetary policy announcements. The euro advanced, moving off recent lows sub-1.300, after the ECB held its interest rates steady. In the subsequent conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that even though the decision was not unanimous, the ECB never precommits. Draghi also sounded optimistic by saying the economy will gradually recover and played down the Italian elections effects on the eurozone. Comments from Draghi alongside better-than-expected US jobless claims helped to boost the EUR/USD which rose above 1.3100 for first time in a week. So what's ahead for the EUR/USD after the ECB? Tomorrow's US jobs report should provide some direction for FX markets heading into next week. "As the week has progressed the here been some improvement in market sentiment, helping to support gains in U.S. European equities and many foreign currencies", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank. "Should the U.S. jobs report show a solid gain tomorrow the commodity and emerging currencies could rise further, though we are more cautious on prospects for the euro, yen and pound". Euro rises to 1.3100. Could it hold gains? After today's rally, EUR/USD technical indicators have turned positive in the short-term supporting a steeper correction. However, as hourlies reach overbought levels and ahead of the NFP report, the cross will likely see a period of consolidation before another leg higher. The EUR/USD would still need to regain the 1.3160 area (Feb 28 high) in order to challenge the broader bearish bias. On the downside, a break below 1.2965 (March 1 & 6 double bottom) would expose the 1.2900/08 zone (psychological level/ Fib 76.4% of 1.2660/1.3710). Commenting on today's EUR/USD advance, Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX says that the rally could be short-lived, especially if tomorrows US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February lives up to the hype (+170K expected). "The growing divergence between the Euro-zone and US economies will be too apparent to keep the EURUSD bid on President Draghi’s 'hopes' for an economic recovery, despite no new policies on either the fiscal or monetary side that would indicate otherwise", he comments. Meanwhile, on a wider view, TD Securities analysts note that if the market takes today's ECB tone too strongly, we could once again find ourselves in a replay of January-February, where Euribors and euro move so much that the ECB must then take another dovish tack to keep market expectations in check. "1.3150-1.3200 is a key risk area for EUR/USD as a push through there would likely bring more upside risk", TD team says.

EUR/JPY Buying Opp?

EUR/JPY is setting up for a large move higher... In this example of a trend chart, we can see an ascending triangle, which is likely to give a positive outcome if you were to go Long. A break above 12219, will give a break out trade and head for 12500 very quickly...if the USD/JPY decides to go UPWARDS, a break below 12090, will open up 11916. Lets see where this goes from here, but a great trading opportunity, either way!

Market Outlook and Comments

Technical Analysis EUR/USD EUR/USD rallies up to 1.3040 “The Italian situation won’t be resolved soon, so the euro malaise will continue. I think the ECB will consider rate cuts going forward. It’s unlikely there will be any euro-buying catalysts from the ECB meeting this week.” - Marito Ueda, FX Prime Corp. (based on Bloomberg) Pair’s Outlook EUR/USD has returned back to the down-trend at 1.3040 that now lies overhead, but the current bias is bearish, meaning we are more likely to see a sell-off here than a surge back above this line. However, development of a dip may not be rapid, since beneath the spot price lies the 200-day SMA at 1.2922/12, which usually is of interest to the market. Traders’ Sentiment Neutral traders’ sentiment towards EUR/USD is perfectly unchanged since yesterday, as 52% of traders are bullish on it and 48% foresee further depreciation of the single currency. The ratio of buy to sell orders is less stable, falling to 40% to 60% from 43% to 57%. GBP/USD GBP/USD pares losses “CAD, EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY are all held net short against the USD.” - ScotiaFX (based on CNBC) Pair’s Outlook Daily technical indicators turned bearish, implying that yesterday’s recovery does not mean a reversal, but is only a short-term bullish correction. Still, the rallies are to be capped by a strong resistance area at 1.5227/1.5175 and sent en route to 1.44890/44 through interim supports at 1.5080 and 1.4938. In the long run we may expect a decline down to 1.4231, the 33-month low. Traders’ Sentiment Popularity of the British Pound is plummeting, as less and less traders remain convinced that debasement of the currency will stop in the near future (53% on average in the whole market). The distribution between the longs and shorts on GBP/USD is 46% to 54% respectively. USD/JPY USD/JPY’s rally falters “We have promised to achieve 2 percent, making it clear in our joint statement to meet the target as early as possible. This is our pledge, so we'll do the utmost to achieve it.” - Hiroshi Nakaso, BOJ official (based on Reuters) Pair’s Outlook The currency pair again retreats, lacking upward momentum ahead of the key resistance zone that stretches from 95.00 down to 94.42 and is mainly formed by the up-trend resistance line. The present weakness could be stopped by 92.89/66, but a decline to 92.15/09 appears to be more likely, even though the weekly indicators continue giving ‘buy’ signals. Traders’ Sentiment An overwhelming majority of the SWFX marketplace participants (72%) believe the tendency of USD/JPY to rise is going to reveal itself once again, as they are holding long positions. The difference between the shares of buy (70%) and sell (30%) orders is unchanged. USD/CHF USD/CHF to extend surge “The central bank shouldn’t scale back its accommodative policy stance so as to support a stronger economic recovery and growth in employment.” - Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Vice Chair (based on MarketWatch) Pair’s Outlook Yesterday the currency pair has confirmed a positive outlook by closing above the support at 0.9400/0.9387. This should now act as a springboard and push USD/CHF up to 0.9512, while the nearest resistances, specifically at 0.9450 and 0.9488, have a high chance of being neglected by the bulls. On the other hand, there is no consensus among the technical studies. Traders’ Sentiment Over the last 24 hours positioning of traders with respect to USD/CHF was not subject to drastic changes. The bulls stay in minority, constituting 38% of the market, whereas bears take up most of it—62%. Concerning orders, 71% of them are to buy the greenback against the Swiss Franc.

NZD/USD is ready

NZD/USD is ready to trade WHITE STAR CCI DIVERGENCE Ready Steady GO

A great start to March..

A great start to March with + 153 pips so far, with many charts now setting up for some BIG moves... AUD/CAD + 117 We sold this at 10551, you should have received a TEXT, currently + 117 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/AUD we have held for few weeks, very slow move but now in profit by 32 pips, we bought this at 12800....lots of patients needed here: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GBP/CHF has been in a downtrend for some time, so this is a retracement + 4..not much happening here so far....

EUR/USD?

The Euro is trading timidly above the all important 1.30 contention area against the US Dollar, an occurrence that will likely keep volume activity in the pair at fairly high levels as the wrestling to determine the next direction continuess. As a reminder, the pair traded as cheap as 1.2966 last Friday, on notable USD-strength across the board. The sellers are the side playing with advantage for now, with the latest development in the Italian political landscape reassuring Euro skeptics that instability in the Euro-zone is here to stay for longer, a recipe for more hesitation to hold Euros. This weekend's main headlines in the Italian front suggest that center-left Bersani - his party obtained the most seats -, said he may plan to form a government on his own as alliance from the other main parties looks improbable. However, a government which wouldn't enjoy enough support from the Senate seems as a very inadequate option to implement fresh new changes. Another rumour doing the rounds was uncovered by The Telegraph's editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, noting that "Italy’s president Giorgio Napolitano is exploring the creation of a second technocrat government to break the political log-jam and calm markets after key parties failed to reach an accord, risking a serious popular backlash." Despite the Italian political odyssey, key element to understand the ongoing selling pressure in the EUR/USD, the Euro has been actually making some progress in the crosses. However, investors continue to pile in on the USD long trade, a phenomenon gaining momentum over the past few weeks, as "systemic risks" within the Euro-zone build again, says Kathy Lien, founder at BK Asset Management. As Kathy reports: "Eurozone economic data was actually quite good last Friday, with German retail sales jumping 3.1% in the month of January and Eurozone manufacturing PMI revised up slightly to 47.9 from 47.8. Unfortunately economic data matters little when systemic risk has returned." The fundamental commentator adds that last Friday's ECB's report that European banks only returned EUR12.5 billion in LTRO payments vs EUR67 billion the week before, in her words, was the main catalyst of the EUR/USD sell-off, "as lower LTRO repayments are negative for the euro because it reflects concerns about liquidity needs in banks" she said. From a technical perspective, according to Sean Lee, founder at FXWW: "The break back below 1.3000 is a bearish sign for EUR/USD and selling rallies looks like the most logical play." The Sydney-based analyst, however, notes that "this move seems to be based more on USD strength rather than EUR weakness, with the single currency making gains against all the other majors" he says. Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, also has $1.2880 as the main target for sellers, a significant level as it aligns with "the 50% retracement of the gains scored after ECB's Draghi promised to do whatever it took" Marc notes. Chris Capre, founder at 2ndSkies, notes: "The key role reversal level at 1.3150 held, so bulls will need to take this out to gain any traction. Bears meanwhile are gunning for 1.2965 which is the weekly low." Chris adds: "Considering the market every week for the last four weeks has had a minor pullback, I’ll look towards selling on a rally instead of taking a short on the break, so will watch the 1.3150 area for any price action signals." On the upside, as explained in a previous article, sequence of near-by resistances will most likely see mid to high selling interest around 1.3035/40 - highest from last NY close - ahead of 1.3050/55 - Feb 28 swing low , with only break above the latter accepting 1.31 target speculations as valid.

AUD/CHF

AUD/CHF, the trend is down yet we see the price moving UP, good news.... In the above chart, notice several thing, Blue Below Red= downtrend CCI overbought at and above 150.... Notice the previous high 9630 GREAT Risk to reward