Wow How much patience do you have?

Trading in the forex market can be many things; frustrating, rewarding, soul-destroying, joy-giving, but there is one truth that all traders must understand if they are to profit:

Patience is key.

There is no doubt that patience is a winning attribute for forex traders and any trader that you ask will tell you that you need to wait for the profits to come.  If you are new to forex, then you need to wait for your knowledge and skill to get up to speed. And if you are not new to the game, you will know that losing periods must be waited out, in order for the good times to come back around.


Why you need patience

To understand why patience is such an important virtue in forex, let us consider some examples.

First, consider a trader who has a trading strategy that allows him to take, on average, 30 pips a day from 2 trades in the forex markets. The odds sound good, but when we discover that his actual winning ratio is quite low (only 30%) it becomes clear that most of his profits actually come from relatively few trades.

Thus, his average may be high, but his winning percentage means he will likely go long periods without winning any trades. In fact, on occasion he may go a week, two weeks or even more without making any money. On even rarer occasions, he may even go a month without taking home any profits.

As you can see, patience is clearly required in this situation to wait out the losing periods. The trader knows that if he keeps plugging away his endeavours will eventually turn into cash, but it is all too easy to give up when time are tough.

Let us now look at a second scenario.

Consider a trader who, one morning, puts a trade on his favourite currency pair after spotting one of his best ever trading setups. Now let’s assume that the currency pair starts going the wrong way and the trader starts to lose money.

Somewhat unbelievably, the trade carries on in this fashion and before he knows it, the trading session is near the end of the day and his position is still showing a loss. He’s quite simply had enough by now and closes up shop for the day so he can have some dinner and go to bed.

Of course, you probably know what is coming next, he has just made a big mistake.

Moments after he closes his position, the currency spikes up as the US markets open and a news flash comes out. In a matter of seconds, the trade that the trader just closed for a loss, would now be showing big profits if only he had waited a couple of minutes more.

That is one of the key lessons to be learnt from forex trading. It can often take hours, days, or weeks, to wait for a move that happens in just seconds.

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Aud/Usd Looks favourite

EUR/USD

Directionless trading

• EUR/USD has further recovered off support at 1.3780. However, bullish rally is weak. Nearterm support is located at 1.3785 (22/04/2014 low, see also the low of the rising channel). The next resistance is at 1.3907 (11/04/2014 high). The short-term technical configuration remains positive as long as the support at 1.3730 holds
• In the longer term, EUR/USD is still in a dominate uptrend, suggesting additional upside can be anticipated. A significant resistance now lies at 1.3876 (24/03/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Sideways trending below resistance

• GBP/USD has broken its previous high at 1.6823 but has thus far failed to break the fibo resistance. However, a solid break above would validated a short-term bullish trend reversal formation. The next resistance can be found at 1.7043 (11/11/2011). The short-term bullish momentum is intact as long as the hourly support at 1.6684 (previous resistance) holds.
• In the longer term, prices continue to move in a rising channel. As a result, a bullish bias remains favoured as long as the support at 1.6460 holds. A major resistance stands at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Fading thus far near weeks high

• USD/JPY failed to break above short-term high at 102.34 (22/04/2014 high) yesterday. Despite a possible pullback, a move towards resistances are at 102.83 (21/04/2014 high) then a distant 104.21 (04/04/2014 high) is still favored.
• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.90) and 101.40 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Correction getting heavy

• USD/CHF declined sharply during yesterday's session, breaking hourly support at 0.8820 (21/04/2014 low). Even though it rose back to close at its daily close price, the hourly succession of lower highs and lower lows favors further short-term weakness. Monitor the test of the intra-day support at 0.8805.
• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures and a potential base formation. A decisive break of the key resistance at 0.8930 would open the way for further medium-term strength.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Bullish Pause

• USD/CAD has stalled below key resistance at 1.1087.Monitor resistances for current recovery rally at 1.1087 (27/03/2014 high) and 1.1103 and (16/04/2014 high). Other supports are given by 1.0860 (see 38.2% retracement) and 1.0738 (20/12/2013 high).
• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Short-term correction likely underway.

• AUD/USD has broken its support at 0.9259, after failing to decisively break the resistance at 0.9461.Supports can be found at 0.9212 (26/11/2013 high and also see rising channel).
• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favors a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448. Above that resistance at 0.9758 (23/10/2013 high) looms.
• Long AUD/USD entered at 0.9175, 2 unit Stop- Loss was triggered at 0.9278, total trade is now closed.

  Potential Buy at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 2 at 0.9278

GBP/JPY

Not ready to break resistance

• GBP/JPY is close to the resistance area implied by the high of the declining channel and 03/04/2009 top. Developing symmetrical triangle should be monitored. A break of the triangle top at 172.70 plus resistance at 173.14 is needed to negate the current short-term bearish momentum. A support can be found at 169.70 (triangle floor).
• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Further sideways drift within triangle

• EUR/JPY remains in a symmetrical triangle pattern in the daily time frame, with a break under 139.20 required to trigger a further extension lower. However, the medium-term trend is neutral and a significant support is at 140.40 (see rising trend). A resistance lies at 142.80 then key resistance area can be found between 143.38 (13/03/2014 high) and 143.79.
• Despite the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Recent strength is still viewed as part of a larger bearish pattern.

• EUR/GBP bounce near the support at 0.8204 has begun to fade. Within its declining channel we favor a test of support at 8204. Resistances can be found at 0.8254 (14/04/2014 pivot low and declining channel)) and 0.8315. (03/04/2014 high).
• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below the declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Renewed bullish grind

• EUR/CHF has reversed short-term strength. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2185.The break of the support at 1.2155 (see uptrend channel) confirms an underlying bearish trend.
• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Recovery rally fading

• Gold has breached support at 1276 (11/03/2014 low) yet staged a strong recovery rally. Failure to sustain a recovery bounce, indicates a renewed test of support at 1276. Resistance at 1301 (200 day moving average) should cap upside.
• Longer term, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is eventually favored. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Back in sideways range

• Silver is back moving sideways, after yesterdays sharp sell-off, as it has thus far been unable to break the resistance at 20.38 to improve the technical structure. Monitor the hourly horizontal range between the hourly support at 19.23 (15/04/2014 low) low) and the resistance at 20.67 (15/04/2014 high). Despite lack of bearish momentum, a move towards support at 18.90 is still favored.
• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilization. A key resistance stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.

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audusd Forecast

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian employment market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change continues to show sharp fluctuations. After two declines, the indicator surged in February, posting a gain of 47.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 15.3 thousand. The markets are expecting another gain in the March release, with an estimate standing at 7.3 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the estimate?

Sentiment and Levels
The RBA has not been shy about the fact that it wants to see the Aussie below the 0.90 level, and we can expect the RBA to continue to try and  “talk down” the currency. In the US, market sentiment remains positive about the economy and recent US employment numbers have been decent, although not as high as the markets had expected. The US dollar has room to move higher if upcoming US numbers don’t disappoint. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9526, 0.9442, 0.9368, 0.9283, 0.9180 and 0.9000.
5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 4.0K to 10.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 10.1K to 14.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 14.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line could be broken.
4. Below expectations: 1.0K to 3.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 1.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break below a second support level.

S & P 500, WAVE 5?

EURCAD wAVE 4!

Market Update 2nd April 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still forming ascending wave with target at level of 1.3820. Later, in our opinion, instrument may fall down to return to level of 1.3765 and then start new ascending wave towards level of 1.3990.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound continues forming descending structure, which may be considered as the fifth wave wit target at level of 1.6430. We think, today price may form the first descending structure of this wave with local target at level of 1.6560.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is still forming descending structure. We think, today price may continue moving towards level of 0.8760 and then return to level of 0.8830.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen continues forming ascending structure; which may be considered as the fifth wave of current correction with target at 103.90 or even 104.20. Later, in our opinion, instrument may consolidate for a while, form reversal pattern, and continue falling down to reach level of 100.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar is still forming descending impulse. We think, today price may complete this descending structure at level of 0.9200 and then return to level of 0.9250. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue forming the first descending wave with main at level of 0.8400.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble is consolidating near level of 35.34. We think, today price may return to level of 35.34 to test it from below and then continue falling down towards level of 33.81.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues forming consolidation channel near its minimums; market formed upside down double top pattern. We think, today price may leave this consolidation channel upwards and start forming the fifth ascending wave with target at level of 1435.