GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD getting ready

GBP/USD now confirms a high and reversal point..

A White star confirms the reversal point.

CCI divergence, see how the CCI is pointing down, yet the price action is going up (divergence)

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EUR/USD also looks good

No star with this pair, just a red dot

Smaller divergence on the CCI..we shall see 

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USD/CAD seems to be bottoming out..

We banked + 86 pips on the way down, but price action indicates a possible reversal..

Notice the Yellow star

Notice the Divergence on the CCI, CCI moving higher yet the price action is moving down....get ready to BUY

See how I banked £25,890 HERE

AUD/NZD is ready again..

AUD/NZD is in a downtrend, but it has to pull back and we have confirmation..

A White Star which is a major reversal signal that the price is likely to higher from here, this measure price action.

Notice the CCI moving upwards yet the price is falling, this is divergence in the market and measure price action a leading indicator.

CAD/CHF is ready again..

CAD/CHF this time is with the trend...

A yellow star, reversal indicator

With the trend, notice the Blue line below the Red

Divergence on CCI, SELL

GBP/JPY break out above 15381..

Notice the USD/JPY starting to make a move higher....

The correlation between ALL Yens is clear, USD/JPY moves higher ALL Yens follow:

The resistance area of 15281 needs to be broken, this could happen any moment now.

Sterling is strong, we have 2 other Sterling positions both in good profits..

Look to BUY above 15281

Go Platinum UPGRADE HERE

AUD/CHF is ready

WHITE STAR

CCI DIVERGENCE

WA EXPLOSION TRIGGER

EUR/AUD EWS

EUR/AUD Early Warning system

Firstly we need to ensure that the Swing Software confirms enough detail..

Notice the WHITE star,a strong reversal signal.

Notice divergence...on CCI

Also notice a double top formation...

Now let go lower..

In this early warning system 1 hour chart...WHITE STAR.

Wa Explosion Indicator confirms the trade, 

Stochastic confirms overbought and pointing south

Sold at 12728....

EUR/JPY forms a wedge..BUY

The EUR/JPY has formed a ascending triangle..

Should now head for 13100 :)

AUD/NZD everyone is selling now BUY..

The above chart gives a good example of the SWing Trading software in action..

WHITE star the nest reversal signal in the market

Divergence on the CCI

Sterling Strength likely

GBP/AUD has had a break out....

The horizontal white line, which had been previous resistance is now acting as support..

All charts from daily, 4 hour 1 hour are now trending, you can use the Wave Hunter or the Trend Trading course to see how this works..expect this to go to 15228 and beyond.

GBP/USD CONFIRMS A SWING

The Yellow star has appeared as indicated above.

Divergence is confirmed on the CCI..Look out for a signal once the WA explosion indicator moves above the Yellow line BUY.

The Nikkei225 Soared.....

The Nikkei225 soared at the open, extending receing gains following overall positive comments out of the G20 meeting in Washington over the weekend. The finance ministers agreed that Japan's easing measures were intended to tackle deflation, but also added that the government must define a credible mid-term fiscal plan. As hinted in the draft communique, the G20 document accepted Japan's policy was not aimed at weakening the yen, pushing USD/JPY within an earshot of the ¥100 handle.

Chinese markets were slightly lower with the Shanghai Composite down 0.4% at the open. Relative weakness was attributed to the devastation of a magnitude 7 earthquake in the Sichuan province over the weekend that left 200 dead, over 10K injured and local infrastructure in shambles, even though local officials said there would be minimal long-term economic impact.

In the euro zone, political deadlock in Italy remained in focus after an abrupt resignation of center-left party leader Bersani on Friday. Despite the growing uncertaintly, local commentators noted that the decision by Pres Napolitano to remain in his post beyond the end of his term in May was a positive development that would help usher a stronger govt.Euro opened the week slightly higher against its counterparts, rising about 30 pips against USD and 20 pips vs GBP to 1.3080 and 0.8590 respectively.

Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 9.9 tons to 1,123.1 ton (lowest since 1,120.1 in Mar of 2010) - update as of Apr 19th

- (KR) South Korea sells 20-yr govt Bonds; avg yield 3.06%

- (AU) Australia Newcastle weekly coal exports for week ended Apr 22nd: -20.9% v +20.9% w/w

- (CN) China may cut fuel price by more than CNY400/ton - Chinese press

Speakers/Political/In the Papers

- (CN) Chinese banks' non-performing loans (NPLs) rise by 20.7% y/y in March - Chinese press

- (CN) PBoC Gov Zhou: Slower GDP in Q1 was "normal" - financial press

- (CN) NDRC's Xiao Jincheng: Sichuan earthquake not likely to have a large impact on economic development of the province in the long term; Latest death toll from China earthquake in Sichuan province seen at 186; 11.3K people injured and 21 still missing - Chinese press

- (CN) Shanghai monthly auction for vehicle license plates saw prices fall for the first time in 10 months - Shanghai Daily

- (CN) Death toll from the outbreak of H7N9 virus in China reached 20; 69-year old man among the 3 dead as of this weekend - press

- (KR) USS Nimintz being moved to western Pacific region due to North Korea concerns - Japanese press

- (KR) North Korea placed nine total missile launchers, seven of which are capable of reaching US military bases in Japan, Guam; US, South Korea observing North Korea moves for the possibility of test-fires on April 25 (anniversary of North Korea military).

- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Kim: recent gold purchase has 10-yr outlook in mind

- (KR) South Korea Customs Agency: April 1-20 exports -3.1% y/y; Imports -6.1% y/y; Deficit seen at $441M - financial press

- (JP) Two China govt ships spotted in the waters around the disputed Senkaku islands on Saturday - financial press 

- (JP) Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda: Explained to G20 members recent easing measures not aimed at weakening yen - financial press

- (JP) Japan Abe Cabinet approval rating falls to 66% - Mainichi press

- (JP) Japan Abe Cabinet Apr approval rating rises to 76%, +7% m/m (fifth consecutive monthly high, record high) - Nikkei News

- (AU) Follow-up: Australia Treasurer Swan: Australia lost about A$7.5B since Oct budget review due to high AUD and lower terms of trade - press

- (AU) S&P: Australia mining investment is peaking

- (AU) Australia faces decade of budget deficits - financial press citing Grattan Institute

- (NZ) RBNZ expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.5% on Tuesday (Wednesday local time) amid continued housing inflation overshadowing strength in NZD - NZ press

- (CA) BOC's Carney: Timing of interest rate hikes hinges on GDP returning above 2%, inflation picking up, and households deleveraging - Canadian media

- (US) Rebels in Russia's North Caucasus region deny any ties to the Boston Marathon bombers

- (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke to skip this year's Jackson Hole conference due to a scheduling conflict

- (DE) German Econ Min Roesler: German 2014 economy to grow much higher than 1% - German press

- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: ECB may cut interest rates further if data justifies an easing, but the effectiveness of lower rates is limited because the impact is not distributed evenly across the euro zone - financial press

- (ES) Spain Fin Min De Guindos: Sees 2013 GDP in a range of -1.5% to -1.0% before returning to "slight" growth in 2014 - financial press

- (IT) Political commentators in Italy indicating that the re-election of Pres Napolitano raises hope of a resolution to a political stalemate - financial press

Equities

- SXY.AU: Reports Mar quarter oil output at 299.5K v 322.8K bbls y/y; Rev $32.2M v $34.3M y/y

- SLR.AU: Reports Mar quarter gold output at 43.8K oz v 26.0K q/q

- OZL.AU: Reports Q1 copper output at 20.5K tons v 23.3K q/q; gold output at 30.8K oz v 32.3K q/q; Lowers FY13 copper output target

- China Unicom 762.HK: Reports Mar metrics: Mobile net adds at 4.59M

- Samsonite 1910.HK: Reports Q1 Rev $466.5M v $403.7M y/y

- Kawasaki Heavy 7012.JP: Set to launch merger talks with Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding - Nikkei News

- JFE 5411.JP: May report FY12/13 Pretax profit ¥45B v ¥45B prior guidance - Nikkei News

- Sumitomo 8316.JP: To increase retail staff by 20% to 3.5k by end-FY15 - Japanese press

- Oriental 4661.JP: May report FY12/13 Op profit ¥80B v ¥76B prior guidance - Nikkei News

cad/chf is almost ready

White Star confirms a reversal is likely.

CCI confirms divergence

Look out for the text alerts

GET THE TEXT TRADING ALERTS HERE

EUR/USD continues to slide....

The euro (EUR) continues to slide against the US dollar (USD) as the pair trades at just above 1.3080. The single currency has found strong resistance at 1.3140 after it had risen from a 6 month low. The pair is heavily influenced by fundamentals such as the Cyprus bailout which has set forth a new agenda for managing country’s in debt.

• Gold (XAU) dropped a whole 150 dollars per troy ounce since Friday as the market re-evaluates its value. The yellow metal is now trading just above 1447 after news that the Central Bank of Cyprus may sell a large amount of its gold as part of a bailout deal with international lenders; such moves are incorporated in pricing in any possible effects of a Portuguese or Spanish bailout.
• The US dollar (USD) is losing against a strengthening Japanese yen (JPY) as the US treasury urged Japan to refrain competitive devaluation. The pair, currently at 98.02 is expected by any analysts to strengthen further as Japan goes ahead with monetary easing.
• Weekly option volatilities for the EURUSD have dropped to 8.00 as fear leaves the market amid thin news and option premiums edge lower. A good opportunity to bet on the market moving sideways.

Movers & Shakers

USDCAD

The US dollar (USD) spiked up in yesterday’s opening against the Canadian dollar (CAD) moving above 1.0190 from 1.0135 on Friday’s close. The pair, which is on a bearish trend for the past month, does not miss a chance to give traders another chance to enter.

Outlook

EURUSD Pivot Point 1.3070 with a preference to go LONG at 1.3070.

Sentiment is 40% of deals to buy EUR

USDJPY Pivot Point 98.85 with a preference to go SHORT at 98.85.

Sentiment is 43% of deals to buy USD

GBPUSD Pivot Point 1.5385 with a preference to go SHORT at 1.5385.

Sentiment is 59% of deals to buy GBP

AUDUSD Pivot Point 1.0475 with a preference to go SHORT at 1.0475.

Sentiment is 51% of deals to buy AUD

GOLD Pivot Point 1495 with a preference to go SHORT at 1495.

Sentiment is 66% of deals to buy GOLD

OIL Pivot Point 91.30 with a preference to go SHORT at 91.30.

Sentiment is 50% of deals to buy OIL

US 500 Pivot Point 1530 with a preference to go LONG at 1530.

Sentiment is 12% to buy US 500

UK 100 Pivot Point 6373 with a preference to go SHORT at 6373.

Sentiment is 37% to buy UK 100

Calendar

EUR – Trade Balance at 09:00 (GMT) Forecast 9.9B

USD – Empire State Manufacturing at 12:30(GMT) Forecast 7.2

USD – TIC Long Term Purchases at 13:00(GMT) Forecast 41.3B

EUR/USD is ready

EUR/USD is ready despite quiet markets..

Yellow Star, with the trend.

Notice the Blue line below the red...Down Trend

CCI also confirms diverence, this indicates a sharp fall is likely

Commentary and Video Update

The shared currency continues to benefit from the recent QQE programme announced by the BoJ last week, as increasing inflows into the peripheral euro debt markets are tightening the yield spreads. This, plus the increasing short positioning according to the last CFTC COT reports are giving extra support to the EUR/USD upside. It is worth noting that the cross-printed a fresh 2013 low last Thursday around 1.2740 during the ECB statement.

… Reality remains ignored

Despite this ongoing bull-run in the cross, advancing almost four big figures since Thursday, the euro fundamentals remain unable to accompany the up-move. Market participants can, in fact, see that the weakness surrounding the real economy is palpable, as shown by the recent indicators. Maybe Germany is doing marginally better, increasing its distance with the rest of the euro bloc members, even with the core ones, but that is of course no guarantee of a better prospect in the upcoming periods. Furthermore, Luxemburg PM, ,J.C.Juncker commented this morning that the euro area would remain stuck into recession, dragging the cross from weekly highs above 1.3120, although this knee-jerk would surely be ephemeral.

Ahead in the day, the FOMC minutes could have the potential to dent the current euro ascent, as consensus expects the greenback to gather some traction on a less dovish tone from the announcements.

All in all, we have seen this before, as many times the grim reality of the euro area was eclipsed by either political developments or bouts of risk appetite.

As of writing, the cross is hovering over the 1.3100 handle, keeping the optimism intact ahead of the FOMC minutes due in the European evening. The interim resistance lies around 1.3115/20, where converge today’s highs and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February – April decline. If the upside impulse persists, the next hurdle is located around 1.3230 (50% Fibonacci retracement) ahead of 1.3340/45 (61.8% retracement).

OIL is ready...

OIL now confirms a BUY...

A yellow Star confirming support..

CCI with divergence

WA Explosion indicator confirm the trigger

Get the Text HERE

110 for USD/JPY...?

Is 110 Possible in USD/JPY?

USD/JPY has been on a tear this week thanks to bold and aggressive easing from the Bank of Japan. Over the past 48 hours, USD/JPY appreciated more than 5% and the last time we saw a move this large was in November 2011 when the BoJ intervened in its currency. When it comes to USD/JPY it is important to realize that trends in the pair can last for a very long time and extend further than what most would imagine.  Between 2007 and 2011, the currency pair dropped nearly 40%. There were certainly recoveries along the way but they were brief and shallow. Before that between 2005 and 2007, USD/JPY rose 20% and a similar move was seen between 2002 and 2005.  Over the past year, USD/JPY has already appreciated nearly 28%, leading many investors to wonder how high it can rise. Considering that the Bank of Japan has just begun easing, there's a lot more room to the upside.  Its 10 year average is 100 and at minimum, we expect USD/JPY to rise to this level but 110 is also possible though 104.50/105 is a more realistic short term target.

 

Basically what the Bank of Japan has done is officially eliminate any reason to buy yen over the next 2 years. Their commitment to bold easing means they will do everything in their power to drive down yields, leading to a more aggressive shift out of Japanese bonds by domestic investors.  They will look abroad for higher yields and they will do it on an unhedged basis as the BoJ's policies should lead to further weakness in the Japanese Yen.  In other words, the central bank has effectively given Japanese investors a reason to go global. Their "Quantitative and Qualitative" easing is the central bank's boldest monetary policy program in recent history and as we have seen in today's reaction to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, it super cedes the ebbs and tides of the U.S. economy.  In the long run, the Nikkei should also benefit from Japan's policies and as shown in the chart below, USD/JPY has a very strong positive correlation with the index so a further rise in Japanese stocks should help fuel the rally in USD/JPY.

 

USD: Sticker Shock in Payrolls

Between today's non-farm payrolls report and yesterday's ECB/BoJ meetings, it has been a rock and roll week in the FX market.  Volatility picked up significantly with breakouts seen in many currency pairs.  Job growth last month was abysmally weak.  U.S. companies added only 88k jobs in March, the smallest increase since June 2012.  While the unemployment rate dropped to 7.6% from 7.7% and February numbers were revised up to 268K from 236K, the sticker shock of the sub 100k print sent the dollar tumbling. The improvement in the unemployment rate is misleading because the participation rate, which measures the number of people employed or actively looking for a job hit a 30 year low. For the Federal Reserve, this morning's jobs numbers will push their timeline out for varying asset purchases because a decline like the one seen today is the exact reason why the central bank is concerned about the sustainability of labor market improvements.  Yet one monthly decline does not constitute a trend especially when it comes after a very strong month in February.  Next week's retail sales report will be key. If consumer spending increases, the central bank may look past this month's decline in job growth. The manufacturing sector cut 3K jobs and losses were also seen in the public sector as private payrolls increased 95k.  Average hourly earnings were flat but average weekly hours increased - in other words, Americans are working longer and not making more.   Lost in the shuffle was the trade balance, which narrowed from -$44.5B to -$43B in February. Aside from retail sales, the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting is also scheduled for release and while we expect more talk of varying asset purchases, after today's payrolls report, some views may have changed.

EUR - Potential for Rally to Extend to 1.3130

It has been a great week to be long euros.  Between ECB President Draghi's comments and the weak non-farm payrolls report, investors have to come to realize that the European Central Bank is staring at an empty toolbox and will be reluctant to ease further while the Federal Reserve will postpone any plans to taper asset purchase after today's disappointing NFP number.  Their natural inclination will now be to reverse the short euro and long dollar trades placed in hopes that central banks would move closer to changing monetary policy this week.  Eurozone economic data was weak and is now mixed and that was good enough for EUR/USD bulls who have taken the currency pair back above 1.30.  While Eurozone retail sales dropped 0.3% in the month of February, German factory orders jumped 2.3%.  This increase should bode well for next week's German industrial production and trade numbers.  In the near term, we expect additional gains in EUR/USD but the pair may have difficulty breaking above last month's high of 1.3134 as the 50 and 100-day SMA also converge near that level. 

           

CAD - Big Decline in Jobs Erase February Gains

The Canadian and Australian dollars fell sharply against the greenback today. While disappointing economic data drove weakness in the CAD, the sell-off in the AUD was far more surprising.  Most other major currencies including the New Zealand dollar rallied after the abysmal non-farm payrolls report but the AUD fell more than 50 pips and held onto its losses.  Economic data from Australia has been good and AUD/JPY has been on a tear, but the sell-off in the AUD/USD was inconsistent with Australian fundamentals.  Support should come soon between 1.03 and 1.0350.  The Canadian dollar on the other hand had very good reasons to weaken as Canada's labor market numbers were just as abysmal as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.  The 54K decline in employment last month erased all of the jobs gained in February.  Not only was this the largest drop in jobs since February 2009 but the unemployment rate also jumped to 7.2% from 7%.  Combined with the surprise increase in the February trade deficit from -0.75B to -1.02B, the Bank of Canada has some fresh headaches on its hands.  This is very bad news for Canada and in many ways worse than the U.S. job numbers because of the relative size of the economy.  Thankfully a stronger than expected IVEY PMI report helped to stem the bleeding in the CAD. Yet considering that USD/CAD has broken to the upside, we think that it is prime for a test of 1.03.   Looking ahead, the only major economic report expected from the commodity producing countries next week will be Australia's employment numbers.  Unlike its peers, NZD/USD ended the North American trading session unchanged.

GBP - Upside Breakout Could Gain Momentum

The British pound also broke out today with sterling rising to a one month high against the U.S. dollar. The lack of key market moving U.K. data mattered little to the GBP/USD as U.S. non-farm payrolls kicked up the volatility in the pair.  While there is quite a bit of resistance around 1.5425 (38.2% Fib of December to March sell-off), the path of least resistance is higher for sterling, especially in near term.  Halifax house prices was the only piece of U.K. data released this morning and according to the report, house prices increased 0.2% last month, brining the 3 month annualized pace of growth down to 1.1% from 1.9%. Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale also spoke this morning and he said the recent labor market performance has been a "huge puzzle."  Jobless claims have been declining every other month of so, representing an improvement in labor market conditions.  He said the U.K. economy would be in a far worse state without Quantitative Easing.  The only thing he said about monetary policy is that it would be preferable to not surprise the markets on policy which suggests that if they were to take additional action, they would likely prepare the market in advance by dropping hints.  The main reports scheduled for release next week will be industrial production and the trade balance. 

GOLD

GOLD seems to have bottomed...with levels of support.

A Yellow Star confirms support

Along with Divergence on the CCI

For those that have upgraded or are on Platinum expect a Text Soon MOUSE HERE TO GET THE TEXT TRADING ALERT

Have you got this software?

USD/CAD almost Ready ...

USD/CAD shows signs of a reversal....

A yellow Star shows signs of support

CCI confirms divergence, we now await the trigger

Shall I text you when I am going to BUY?

MOUSE HERE

AUD/USD Early Entry System and Market Update

The AUD/USD offers a great opportunity to go short with the "EWS"..

In this example we can see the White Star, but also Notice the double top.

Along with Divergence on the CCI.

A great set up for the "Early Warning System"......

In this example of the EWS chart, notice the White Star once more.

Also the Stochastic overbought...We now await the trigger for an early entry for Gold Members and above...

SEE THE MARKET UPDATE BELOW AS WE BANKED OVER 220 PIPS THIS MORNING...

Upgrade to GOLD here!