A White Star has appeared the most powerful reversal signal and divergence on the CCI, look to BUY shortly

Receive my signals Mouse Here

Dollar Rallies as Fiscal Cliff Concerns Return...

Dollar Rallies as Fiscal Cliff Concerns Return

The U.S. dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies today as concerns about the Fiscal Cliff return. Throughout the past week, investors were hopefully that there would be a last minute deal to spare the U.S. economy from falling off the cliff. While this remains a possibility, the outlook is grim following Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s comment that “little progress has been made.” With less than 5 weeks to go before the end of the year, Congress is running out of time. Yet everyone knows that the stakes are high and while a comprehensive plan to avert the fiscal cliff is not likely, a partial deal that would give lawmakers breathing room to discuss broader reforms in the New Year is still possible. Some areas of agreement include closing loopholes, limiting tax deductions and extending tax cuts for middle and lower income earnings.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report is scheduled for release tomorrow along with new home sales. Given the dovish FOMC minutes, we don’t expect much optimism from the Fed. However there are signs of improvement – according to the Conference Board, consumer optimism rose to its highest level in 4 years in the month of November. This improvement was a big surprise since the sharp sell-off in stocks between mid October and November caused other sentiment indicators such as the IBD and UMich surveys to decline. The increase in confidence bodes well for the holiday shopping season because it suggests that consumers are not that worried about the Fiscal Cliff. With Black Friday sales hitting record levels this year and spending on Cyber Monday rising more than 25% from 2011, the fiscal cliff isn’t causing any pangs of fear for consumers. Stronger demand was also seen in durable goods. While the headline number showed durable goods unchanged last month, if we exclude a decrease in transportation orders, demand for products made to last for a few years rose 1.5%. House prices also increased 0.39% according to S&P/Case-Schiller and 0.2% according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. This softer pace of growth is consistent with the slow improvements seen in the housing market. Aside from the better than expected U.S. data, the rally in the dollar was also fueled by hawkish comments from Fed President Fisher who spoke in Berlin this morning. Fisher called for setting limits on asset purchases and said he believes there isn’t a need for the Fed to do more. As a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, his views have a limited impact on monetary policy.

  

EUR: Greek Deal Brings No Excitement

The euro ended the day slightly lower against the U.S. dollar in what can be best described as a classic buy the rumor sell the news type of reaction. Euro area finance ministers finally reached a deal on Greece, removing the immediate risk of a default. Unfortunately it is but one band-aid for a very big wound that resolves only a near term problem for the euro and not the region’s broader sovereign debt crisis. Spain could still knock on the bailout window next year and Greece could return to the negotiating table 6-12 months from now. As our colleague Boris Schlossberg pointed out, “Greece will receive 43.7 Billion euro in a series of stages from the Troika. The IMF share will be paid out all at once, once a buy back of Greek debt has occurred in the coming weeks. The ECB will hand back 11 Billion in profits it made on its sovereign debt holdings of Greek bonds and the EU will provide additional financing with the goal of reducing Greek debt to GDP ratio to 124% by 2020. The lenders also sought to cut interest rates for Greece and extend the maturity by 15 years to 30 years overall granting Athens 10 years of interest deferral. The parties also agreed to cut rates on the already extended bilateral loans from 150bps above cost to 50bps above cost once Greece achieves a 4.5% primary surplus.” Looking ahead, we don’t expect German consumer prices to have much impact on the euro. Import prices declined last month for the second month in a row and this suggests that CPI will slide as well. While today’s sell-off is not significant enough to negate the uptrend in the euro, the currency could remain under pressure from concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff.

GBP: BoC Head Carney to become New BoE Chief

The British pound ended the day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar but slightly higher against the euro. The second release of U.K. GDP played second fiddle to the big story that broke headlines on Monday. To everyone’s surprise, U.K. Chancellor Osborne named Bank of Canada Governor Carney as the new head of the Bank of England starting July 1st, the day after Mervyn King steps down. As far as the market had known, Carney was not even a contender for the BoE post but this would not be the first time that the U.K. government appointed a foreigner to a key policymaking role. Americans Adam Posen (who stepped down in August) and Deanne Julius have served as members of the monetary policy committee. Carney is also married to a Brit with 4 daughters with dual citizenship. The Bank of England has been forced to look beyond their own borders for candidates after a series of trading scandals dented the credibility of U.K. policymakers. As head of the Bank of Canada since 2008, Carney has extensive experience, is well respected internationally and has a done a good job of steering Canada’s economy through the financial crisis. He is said to be tough on banks, calling for higher capital requirements and tighter processes, flexible on inflation targeting and monetary policy. Yet Carney’s job won’t be easy because the U.K. economy is not only larger than Canada’s but it also faces deeper and more challenging problems. There were no revisions in the second release of U.K. GDP. The latest report confirmed that the economy rose out of recession in Q3 by growing 1%.

  

NZD: Strong Currency is Curtailing Export Demand

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars ended the day slightly lower against the greenback. New Zealand was the only country to release any meaningful economic data overnight and according to the report, conditions in the economy did not improve as much as economists had anticipated. The country’s trade deficit narrowed to -718M from -775M. Economists had forecasted a much smaller -450M trade gap but a strong currency and falling milk and butter prices weighed on exports. While exports and imports increased in October, the 12 month trade gap swelled to its largest amount in nearly 3 years. For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the lack of improvement in trade activity supports the case for more easing. This weekend’s NY Times had a lengthy article on New Zealand’s economy and the Prime Minister’s bet on Hollywood. The article talks about how Prime Minister Key is betting that filmmaking will help revive New Zealand’s economy through job growth and tourism. However beyond Peter Jackson’s “The Hobbit,” it is not clear if other filmmakers will be as attracted to making movies in New Zealand, especially now that the currency appreciated in value. With no major economic reports scheduled for release from the 3 commodity production countries, their currencies will take their cue from equities.

  

JPY: Weak Data Highlights Strains in Japan’s Economy

The Japanese Yen traded lower against all of the major currencies with the exception of the euro and Swiss Franc. There were only 2 pieces of Japanese data released overnight, which was the corporate service price index and small business confidence. Both measures support the case for further easing from the Bank of Japan. According to the corporate service price index, deflationary pressures exacerbated last month with prices falling the most in 8 months on a year over year basis. Small business confidence also slipped to its lowest level since July 2011. As we previously pointed out, Japan’s economy is deteriorating rapidly and we expect this week’s retail trade report to show further weakness. While economists are looking forward to a rebound in spending, rising bankruptcies and a decline in confidence could curb spending. It is widely believed that Japan’s economy returned to recession in the fourth quarter and a further drop in retail trade would need to occur for that to happen.

EUR/CAD look vulnerable to the downside

Notice this chart on the EUR/CAD not a White star, but a yellow start with Divergence as well on the CCI.

We can expect 100 pips or more on this one.....:)

AUD/CHF showing signs of a reversal to the upside

Notice the Star, not a white star, but a reversal nonetheless, divergence as well.

Although this signal is not as strong as a white star often the markets react at these levels, giving you great opportunities..

Mouse Here!

NZD/JPY

Once the USD/JPY starts to fall all other Yens fall as well...

We have a White Star a very strong reversal signal, divergence on the CCI and an explosion indicator shows a very large move is highly likely.

In order to find out how you can obtain the text alerts to your mobile and download the charting software Mouse Here

USD/JPY continues to fall

Our short position on USD/JPY has started to fall at last now currently 8182 + 36 pips so far

Our target on the day trade is 8155, if this gets hit it banks + 61 pips but an excellent 2.54% return.

The second position (compounding) has a much larger target of 7950.

Compounding is the key to larger profits and there are several ways to do this, to find out more Mouse Here

EuroZone News

Risky assets advanced this week as economic indicators showed improving growth momentum in China and the US, while the economic recession did not intensify in the eurozone. Optimism about an imminent agreement on a debt-reduction package for Greece also contributed to improve market sentiment. Spain took advantage of more positive market mood and it managed to sell EUR8.8bn in government bonds and Treasury bills, helping sentiment toward risk assets. In this context, negative impact of the French credit rating downgrading was quite mute. Peripheral risk premia narrowed notably across the board this week. Notwithstanding the safe-haven yields rose, the reaction in the short-end of the German yield curve was quite limited. At the end of the week, oil prices fell due to ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, reducing one of the global market headwinds. Finally, Japanese yen is being dragged by expectation of Japanese Liberal Democratic Party expectation to win elections on December 16, which backs an ease monetary policy

- EU finance ministers and the IMF failed again to agree on a debt-reduction package for Greece Creditors led by Germany refuse to put more money or offer debt relief. However, there’s optimism on speculation that European finance ministers are close to finalizing a debt-reduction package for Greece, as soon as next week, at Eurogroup meeting next Monday (Nov 26). Apparently this optimism rests on the fact that policy makers remain positive on the prospects for a deal. German Finance Minister Wolfang Schaeuble said that the issue on how to close the Greek financing gap was solvable: “we have a series of options” and we’ve “discussed the issue very intensively, but since the questions are so complicated we didn’t come to a final agreement.” Meanwhile, Mr. Juncker stopped just short of predicting a deal at next Monday’s meeting by saying that “further technical work on some elements of this package” is needed. Meanwhile, the next aid payment, which has been held up since June, remains frozen until at least next Monday’s meeting. 

- Well-received Spanish government debt auction helped risk sentiment toward risky asset. This week, Spain’s Treasury sold EUR 3.9bn in 3Y bond, 4.7Y bonds and 8.4Y, topping the initial issuance range (EUR 2.5-3.5bn). Yields accepted were in line or slightly below with secondary market yields and lower than in previous auctions. Besides, the Spanish Treasury also issued EUR4.9bn in 12M and 18M Treasury Bills. Average yield at these auctions were below secondary market yields.

• Continuing with positive news, the Portugal successfully passed the sixth review of its aid programme
  - However not all news were positive in Europe this week. Moody’s cut the French credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from AAA, due to the economy's weakness and the risks to the government's finances "posed by the country's persistent structural economic challenges". This movement has increased the downgrade risk of the EFSF. Yet, its negative market impact was offset by optimism about a resolution on Greek woe.

• Optimism on improving growth momentum in China and significant strength in US housing indicators
  - In China, this week brought additional signs of growth stabilization. Particularly, China’s flash PMI jumped above the expansion threshold for the first time in 13 months. China’s Markit/HSBC Flash PMI showed a notable increase to 50.4 in November, compared with a final reading of 49.5 in October, marking the first time since October 2011 that the Markit/HSBC PMI has been above the 50 threshold, which indicates that manufacturing sector activity for small-and-medium enterprises is expanding once again. Together with other recently released macro data from China, the latest Flash PMI points to China’s improving growth momentum. We continue to expect China’s growth to pick up in the fourth quarter and improve further in the first quarter of next year.
  - In the US, existing home sales rose 2.1% to an annualised rate of 4.790 million, the strongest selling rate since the home-buyers tax credit was in effect in May 2010, indicating gains in the real estate market are being sustained by cheap borrowing costs. More notably, housing starts climbed to their highest level since July 2008. Starts rose to an annual pace of 894k (3.6% m/m) in October, up from a downwardly revised 863k in September (initial: 872k) and well above consensus expectations (840K). This significant upshift in housing starts is consistent with this week’s jump in homebuilder sentiment which returned it to 2006’s levels. Albeit housing permits, which fell to 866k in October from 890k in September, suggest some moderation ahead, they had risen 12% in September to a four-year high, which points to improving growth momentum in the housing sector. Other US economic data were mixed. Jobless claims fell as expected, while the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 82.7 in the final November report (initial: 84.9), which was below consensus expectations. Yet, markets have ignored the mixed data and rally on the positive data as they believe there’s hurricane-related weakness in some data.

• With respect to fiscal-cliff negotiations this week there was renewed optimism. It seems that the Republicans are willing to accept increased government taxes coupled with spending cuts
  - In Europe, there are still no signs of a turnaround but Eurozone PMI’s downfall stabilized in November. The eurozone flash Composite PMI stood at 45.8, slightly up from October (45.7) and somewhat below expectations (BBVA and Consensus: 45.9). Manufacturing was up by 0.8 points but services went down by 0.3 points, both remaining clearly in contractionary territory. After the deep fall observed since March (with an accumulated downturn of 5 points between March and July), Manufacturing PMIs have recovered over 2 points in the last four months, while services continue falling slowly. Although available soft data for Q4 are similar to those for Q3, our model MICA-BBVA forecasts that recession would be larger in Q4 than in Q3 (-0.4% fall for the last quarter, from -0.1%).

Next week: The Eurogroup will meet again on November 26 to further discuss Greece financing needs. On the economic front, in the US several economic indicators will be released such as Personal income and Spending figures for October, the Consumer confidence and the Chicago PIM indexes for November, and the Fed’s Beige book. In Europe, the M3 and CPI for November will be also released.

CAD/JPY also has divergence

The CAD/JPY we have sold

Whenever the USD/JPY moves in one direction then you find that ALL Yens do the same, some are better than others.

Notice the divergence on the CCI, pointing down.

The explosion indicator now confirm a sharp move lower is highly likely.....

DownLoad the charting software Here

USD/JPY overbought at these levels

The USD/JPY has become very overbought at 8250, now a sell on our Swing Trading charts see below:

Notice the white star a major reversal indicator, along with divergence on the CCI, notice how this is achieving lower highs, whilst the price continued up.

Now the Expolsion indicator has confirmed a sell...

Download these charts to your desktop within minutes and start making profits..

Click Here to download the software

EUR/USD continues upwards

Eur/Usd continues upwards today, despite looking overbought and a possible reversal now the Star has appeared.

Due to Thanks Giving today volumes are to be very light and I banked + 108 pips and + 80 pips on the USD/CHF as well.

Notice the White star where we bought the EUR/USD, now a yellow start has appeared which indicates a reversal is likely.

We continue to hold GBP/USD

Learn How to download this software and receive FREE signals

USD/JPY SELL

We have all indicators now showing a sell on our Swing Trading system.

White Star indicates a strong reversal, along with Divergence on the CCI

Target 7930.......

Buy the Software, Signals for 30 days for just £4.95

BUY HERE

GBP/USD looks oversold....

GBP/USD looks overbought, we have bought this now, should start to head ofr 16150 within the next few weeks......Gone £300 per pip.

Look out for the video!

Notice the white star a very powerful indicator  confirming a possible reversal.

Also notice the divergence on the CCI an pointing north....

Why not download this software onto your desktop and SEE THE STARS! :

Click Here to download the Charts and get FREE signals

NZD/USD

NZD/USD is indicating oversold along with divergence....

Notice the white star, which indicates avery strong reversal CCI indicates divergence to the upside, target 8290?

Why not receive my FREE 30 days signals, sent to your mobile phone receive this signal, don't miss the next big move!

Click here for FREE 30 days signals

EUR/USD Everyone's selling, always a worry!

Eur/Usd continues higher 12741 now + 30 pips so far....

Eur/Usd looks very oversold on all charts, despite being in a downtrend on the daily chart, we could expect a sharp rise in price in the coming days.

Notice on the above chart, we now have a white star (very strong reversal signal) and divergence notice the price falling whilst the CCI is rising, we just need to see some volume before entry.

You can access these charts and have them downloaded to your desktop, simply go to Click Here to discover how to download the charting software

Follow my trades via email Click Here to receive regular updates

USD/CHF looking overbought....

I have now gone short USD/CHF

Target 9300 a nice risk to reward with over 3.5% return, if target hits.

USD/CHF is looking rather overbought, we also have divergence as well.

See the chart below:

The white start has appeared which is a strong indicator of a reversal at the top at 9500, look to sell shortly

I can send you the signal, which will include in this case the sell order, protected stops and a fixed target.

Sign up for the signal service from only £39 today, receive this signal within the next few hours.....

Click here, I wish to sign up for your signals

CHF/JPY Continues its decline.....

We sold the CHF/JPY some time ago and we continue to bank more profits..

There pair could be heading for 7900, which would give us over 500 pips in the coming weeks, JUST on this trade!

Other trades in profit so far EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, CAD/CHF, CHF/JPY with a potential profit of over 3,000 pips in the coming weeks

Sign up for the signals and bank profits ordo one of my courses:

WWW.LEARNWHERETOINVEST.COM

Eur/Usd Fights with 12740, we await a break down? Or a rally....

EUR/USD reaches an important support area at 12740, it should bounce upwards from here and help our NZD/USD position.

See chart where 12740 was previously resistance

USD/JPY

Having slid to a low since November 1st at 79.80 from a US session high of 80.44, USD/JPY has climbed overnight to where it currently trades at 80.26.

As news of Obama's impending victory flowed in, USD/JPY declined sharply to find support at the November 1st low as markets had factored in an Obama victory as being business as usual for the USD in terms of the ultra dovish Fed policy. However, the momentum lower was short lived as Japanese Finance Minister Jojima commented that he is watching markets for Yen appreciation and disorderly moves as a downside risk to the Japanese economy. He also noted that he would do everything to beat deflation with the Government and the BoJ working together and that a strong Yen does not reflect Japan's weak economic fundamentals. Markets have interpreted this as a sign of further BoJ easing and consequentially seen spot pushed back higher.

Calendar wise, Swiss CPI falls at 08:15 GMT, EU Retail Sales come in at 10:00 GMT. German Industrial Production is scheduled for 11:00, but the headline risk event is the Greek Parliament Austerity Vote which takes place today. Due to the nature of such an event, the timing is ad hoc. ICN.com analysts hold a bullish view on the pair noting that despite there being a downside bias weighing on spot to test areas below 80.00, and Stochastics continuing to show bearish divergence, they still maintain their bullish expectations, looking to buy on dips around 79.50-60.

Elsewhere, European stocks have opened higher, with commodities following suit and critical European yields down and stable.

USD/JPY Nov 07 at 08:32 GMT

80.22/30 (-0.12%)

Obama wins..

Overall short-term market positioning would seem to be at very neutral levels which again should suggest moderate volatility,” says Sean Lee, founder at FXWW, “although EUR shorts are again the exception,” the analyst adds, referring to increasing short interest from professional traders.

“The biggest position amongst professional players at the moment is short EUR,” Sean says. “EUR/USD is in a short-term downtrend but seems to have found a temporary base at 1.2765,” Mr Lee expands, adding: “Given recent range-trading history, confidence will not be high amongst the bears that a trend is about to develop and the possibility of a double-bottom on the short-term charts will also be unsettling them." 

Sean finds “there is room for further retracements towards more solid resistance 1.2880/1.2920,” the analyst concludes. Meanwhile, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, also notes that "price needs to extend beyond the 1.2880 level to be able to extend its recovery today."

In a more complete analysis, immediate resistance to the upside for EUR/USD comes at recent session highs/200 day EMA at 1.2873, followed by Oct 26/29/30 lows at 1.2885, and Oct 24 lows at 1.2920. To the downside, closest support lies at previous weekly high Monday 1.2842, followed by yesterday's NY session high at 1.2826, and recent session lows at 1.2784.

One day ahead of the ECB rate call, the next London session will deliver Spanish industrial production at 08:00 GMT, EU retail sales and Autumn economic forecasts at 10:00 GMT, and Germany industrial production 1 hour later. Also German PM Merkel will address European Parliament in Brussels at 15:15 GMT, while Greek Parliament will vote on new austerity measures plan during the day. In the sovereign EZ debt auctions front Germany will try to sell up to € 4B in short term bills at 07:00 GMT, with US 10 year yields having a beat following Obama's win, and German 10y at 1.46% yield near 2-month lows.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY looks promising.

Holding above it's support line at 12800, if it breaks higher in the coming days look to buy a could head back up to 133.39...

NZD/USD

NZD/USD strating to move higher, now moving stop into profit